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Arceus VSTAR — Brilliant Stars #176
Pull rate1 in 408 packs
Cost to pull~$6,026
Released2022-02

Arceus VSTAR

Brilliant Stars · #176 · RBW
$15.69fair value $12.90
▲ 22% overPriced above fair value.
Demand FadingDemand is softening. A description of the data today, not a forecast.
30 daysPrice−0%Sales−33%Listings−2%
Repriced 2026-10-28 · Fair value is descriptive, not a forecast
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Price history

Raw price
Raw
$14.88▲ +$0.42 (+2.9%)past 90 days
$13.39$14.30$16.11$14.88
Aug 1Aug 23Sep 14Oct 5Oct 27
Market price
Latest raw market price · $14.88 · Oct 27, 2026
Raw is the daily TCGplayer market price. Fair value is the model's own daily reading, archived since June 2026.

Grading

Grade ladder

Confidence (High / Med / Low) is how much recorded sale history backs the price. Low means only a few sales, so treat it as directional. Prices are eBay-sold medians; ×raw is the grading premium; sales count the last 30 days.
What this card sells for at each grade, and how many sales back each price.
SkipGrading a raw copy to PSA 10 pencils about −33% expected return.Raw $15.69 → PSA 10 $92.00 · 5.9×
GradePrice× RawLast saleSales 30dConfidence
—Raw$15.69———High
PSA10$92.005.9×$92.00 · Oct 215High
CGCPristine 10CGC 10 sales whose eBay listing says Pristine. The top CGC grade, so it can sell above a PSA 10. 8.8% of this card's graded CGC slabs are Pristine (population as of Oct 3), across everything CGC has graded, so it isn't the odds for your slab.$70.004.5×$57.00 · Oct 203Med
CGC10Pristine 10 sales are left out and shown on their own line.$28.801.8×$25.20 · Oct 51High
BGS10$109.997.0×$109.99 · Oct 201Low
Prices are eBay-sold medians; last sale is the most recent single sale; sales count the last 30 days. Confidence reflects the full sale history behind each price. Low-confidence rows rest on few sales, so treat them as directional.

Grade distribution

How copies sent to PSA have come back.
Gem rate57.9%
PSA graded3,730
PSA 10
2,16157.9%
PSA 9
1,18931.9%
PSA 8
2586.9%
PSA 7
551.5%
6 & below
671.8%
Other graders · as of Oct 2026
CGC1,205 graded · 44.8% top · 116 Pristine
BGS133 graded · 0% top
SGC118 graded · 37.3% top
PSA population from our own psacard.com read, Oct 4, 2026. Half grades count toward the grade below (a 9.5 is a 9). Other graders as of Oct 2026.

Market

Supply & demand

How many copies are for sale, and how fast they're selling.
Raw
TCGplayer listings10190 sellers · -21% vs 7d
Sold / week12▼ 33.3% vs 30d
Demand pressure12% · soft
softhot
Supply trendsteady · -2%
ClearingBuilding
TCGplayer sales · sold per day
Aug 8Oct 24
Supply is the TCGplayer listing count; demand pressure = weekly TCGplayer sales ÷ listings (soft → hot), a single-venue sell-through read. The supply-trend gauge reads eBay where we have it, with the TCGplayer listings trend surfacing as its history matures. Descriptive market context, not a forecast.

Investment Score

One grade for how durable this card's demand looks today.
Data snapshot, not a forecast
D
40/100Watch

Arceus VSTAR earns a 40/100 investment score and a D grade (watch). It's trading 22% above our fair value. It's one of the pricier cards in Brilliant Stars. Grading it to PSA-10 doesn't pencil at today's prices. It trades thinly.

30-day move▼ 7%
Grading edge-37%
Time window30d
What drives the scoreout of 10, vs. modeled cards
Demand
3.2
Scarcity
3.2
Stability
8.8
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