Market
index level · base 1,000 (not a dollar price) · combines Scarlet & Violet + Mega Evolution
Descriptive — what the market is doing now and where it sits versus fair value. Not a forecast.
What's in the HyperPotion index · 1128 cards
Per-set indexes
How this index works
What's in it. The modeled chase-card universe we fair-value. Whole market = every Scarlet & Violet + Mega Evolution chase card; Top 20 = the 20 priciest; Top per set = the top 1/5/10/20 of each set; By set = a single set's cards (a "151 Index"). Sword & Shield joins once its data is complete.
How it's calculated. An equal-weighted, chain-linked index (like a stock index): each day the level moves by the trimmed-mean daily return of its cards — dropping the top & bottom 2.5% and rejecting any >50% single-day jump — from a base of 1,000. The curated cuts (price tiers, Top 20, Top per set) are their current constituents — selected by each card's recent median price (so a single thin PSA-10 sale can't crown the wrong card) — shown over their history. Raw uses TCGplayer market prices; PSA 10 uses graded sale prices. The optional S&P 500 overlay is rebased to the same starting point to compare returns over the window.
Market vs fair value. The gauge is the basket's average gap to our modeled fair value — positive = the market trades above fair (rich), negative = below (cheap). It describes the present; it doesn't predict.