Market Index
A chain-linked barometer of the modeled chase-card market with a fair-value overlay and an S&P 500 comparison. Descriptive: is the market rich or cheap versus what cards are worth?
The HyperPotion Raw Index · base 1,000
1,268.04▲ +26.8% S&P 500 +28.6% · index trails by 1.8 pts
Index level, not a dollar price · 2,684 cards · history since 2025-01-27
Market vs fair value
▲ +6%rich vs modeled fair
The basket is trading above fair value. Descriptive of where the market sits today, not a forecast.
Basket
- Basket market value
- $56,714
- Cards in the index
- 2,684
- Typical card
- $5.25
- Breadth · up in 7d
- 40%
What's in the index
Showing 24 of 2,684 · sorted by price#CardMARKETVS FAIR
1Umbreon VMAXEvolving Skies · #215
$2,210
-8%
2Rayquaza VMAXEvolving Skies · #218
$1,242
-11%
3Umbreon exPrismatic Evolutions · #161
$1,137
-2%
4Gengar VMAXFusion Strike · #271
$1,027
+22%
5Mew exPaldean Fates · #232
$848.99
+15%
6Giratina VLost Origin · #186
$821.01
-3%
7Mega Gengar exAscended Heroes · #284
$734.45
+50%
8VictiniBlack Bolt · #171
$622.40
+15%
9Pikachu exAscended Heroes · #276
$608.50
+29%
10Zekrom exBlack Bolt · #172
$595.79
-8%
11Mega Charizard X exPhantasmal Flames · #125
$587.29
+36%
12VictiniWhite Flare · #172
$536.82
+9%
13Rayquaza VEvolving Skies · #194
$475.03
-16%
14Dragonite VEvolving Skies · #192
$468.35
-4%
15Reshiram exWhite Flare · #173
$464.50
-13%
16Lugia VSilver Tempest · #186
$461.76
-5%
17Mega Dragonite exAscended Heroes · #290
$428.88
+44%
18Sylveon exPrismatic Evolutions · #156
$388.94
+22%
19Blaziken VMAXChilling Reign · #201
$378.66
+32%
20Umbreon VEvolving Skies · #189
$375.24
-8%
21Leafeon VMAXEvolving Skies · #205
$375.04
-4%
22Sylveon VMAXEvolving Skies · #212
$358.44
-29%
23Espeon VMAXFusion Strike · #270
$338.25
+11%
24Team Rocket's Mewtwo exDestined Rivals · #231
$334.73
+21%
Per-set indexes
15130th CelebrationAscended HeroesAstral RadianceBattle StylesBlack BoltBrilliant StarsBurning ShadowsCelebrations (25th)Celestial StormChampion's PathChaos RisingChilling ReignCosmic EclipseCrimson InvasionCrown ZenithDarkness AblazeDestined RivalsDragon MajestyEvolving SkiesForbidden LightFusion StrikeGuardians RisingHidden FatesJourney TogetherLost OriginLost ThunderMega EvolutionObsidian FlamesPaldea EvolvedPaldean FatesParadox RiftPerfect OrderPhantasmal FlamesPitch BlackPokemon GOPrismatic EvolutionsRebel ClashScarlet & VioletShining FatesShining LegendsShrouded FableSilver TempestStellar CrownSun & MoonSurging SparksSword & ShieldTeam UpTemporal ForcesTwilight MasqueradeUltra PrismUnbroken BondsUnified MindsVivid VoltageWhite Flare
How this works
01 · What is in itThe modeled chase-card universe. Whole market covers every Sun & Moon, Sword & Shield, Scarlet & Violet and Mega Evolution chase card; Top 20 is the 20 priciest; Top per set takes the top 1/5/10/20 of each set; By set gives a single-set index. An era joins the whole-market line on the date its price history begins, not before.
02 · How it is calculatedEqual-weighted and chain-linked from a base of 1,000: each day the level moves by the trimmed-mean daily return of its cards, dropping the top and bottom 2.5% and rejecting any single-day jump over 50%. Curated cuts pick their constituents by recent median price, so one thin sale cannot crown the wrong card.
03 · Market vs fairThe gauge is the basket’s average gap to modeled fair value: positive means the market trades rich, negative means cheap. It describes the present; it does not predict.