Lost Origin Index
A chain-linked barometer of the Lost Origin chase cards with a fair-value overlay and an S&P 500 comparison. Descriptive: is this set rich or cheap versus what its cards are worth?
The Lost Origin Raw Index · base 1,000
1,712.38▲ +71.2% S&P 500 +28.6% · index leads by 42.6 pts
Index level, not a dollar price · 98 chase cards · history since 2025-01-27
Market vs fair value
▲ +0.1%in line with modeled fair
The basket is trading about where the model says it should. Descriptive of where the market sits today, not a forecast.
Basket
- Basket market value
- $1,847
- Cards in the index
- 98
- Typical card
- $3.28
- Breadth · up in 7d
- 46%
Lost Origin in dollars
Singles baskets and sealed product, priced, not indexed.
What's in the index
Showing 24 of 98 · sorted by price#CardMARKETVS FAIR
1Giratina VLost Origin · #186
$821.01
-3%
2Aerodactyl VLost Origin · #180
$201.09
+40%
3Pikachu VLost Origin · #TG16
$106.68
-8%
4Pikachu VMAXLost Origin · #TG17
$94.50
+18%
5GengarLost Origin · #TG06
$46.95
-31%
6PikachuLost Origin · #TG05
$41.32
-34%
7Mew VMAXLost Origin · #TG30
$29.61
-32%
8CharizardLost Origin · #TG03
$28.92
-19%
9Rotom VLost Origin · #177
$26.76
+1%
10Pikachu VMAXLost Origin · #TG29
$23.94
-18%
11Giratina VSTARLost Origin · #201
$23.73
-26%
12SnorlaxLost Origin · #TG10
$22.91
-33%
13Galarian Perrserker VLost Origin · #184
$21.99
+17%
14Giratina VSTARLost Origin · #212
$18.70
-26%
15Giratina VLost Origin · #185
$17.03
-40%
16Aerodactyl VSTARLost Origin · #199
$15.26
-13%
17Eternatus VMAXLost Origin · #TG22
$14.35
+37%
18Enamorus VLost Origin · #TG18
$12.62
+30%
19NessaLost Origin · #TG27
$12.22
-10%
20Crobat VLost Origin · #TG20
$12.05
-7%
21Orbeetle VMAXLost Origin · #TG13
$11.65
-1%
22Hisuian Goodra VSTARLost Origin · #202
$10.62
+25%
23Gallade VLost Origin · #TG19
$9.52
-8%
24Hisuian Zoroark VSTARLost Origin · #203
$9.38
+2%
Other set indexes
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How this works
01 · What is in itThe chase cards of Lost Origin that the model prices. A set needs at least five tracked chase cards before it gets an index at all. Below that the level is one or two cards wearing a set's name.
02 · How it is calculatedEqual-weighted and chain-linked from a base of 1,000: each day the level moves by the trimmed-mean daily return of its cards, dropping the top and bottom 2.5% and rejecting any single-day jump over 50%. Curated cuts pick their constituents by recent median price, so one thin sale cannot crown the wrong card.
03 · Market vs fairThe gauge is the basket’s average gap to modeled fair value: positive means the market trades rich, negative means cheap. It describes the present; it does not predict.