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Pikachu V — Lost Origin #TG16

Pikachu V

Lost Origin · #TG16 · TGV

Pull rate1 in 544Cost to pull~$10,434Released2022-09

Fair-value verdict

Market

$131.60

Fair value What our model says this card is worth from its fundamentals — print scarcity, character demand, gem rate, and grading comps. The verdict compares the market price to this. It's a fair-value read, not a prediction of where the price will go.$128.48FAIR
Below fairFairAbove fair

Supply Building Listings are piling up faster than they sell.

Listings +13% · Price −1%

PSA 10

How Market is measured The Market value is a robust median of PSA 10 sold prices, a 7-day window when the card sells ≥5/week, widening to 30 to 60 days for thin volume, with an outlier filter. The chart plots the individual sales, so a recent spike can ride above this median. Reading raw vs. slab The two verdicts measure against different benchmarks, so they can point different directions without disagreeing. Raw is judged against the graded market, so a discount means the raw card is cheap relative to its PSA 10. Slab is judged against fundamentals, so a premium means the PSA 10 itself looks rich versus print scarcity, grading rates, and demand. Both can be true at once.

Market

$500.00

Fair value What our model says this card is worth from its fundamentals — print scarcity, character demand, gem rate, and grading comps. The verdict compares the market price to this. It's a fair-value read, not a prediction of where the price will go.$490.21FAIR
Below fairFairAbove fair

Grading How often this card grades PSA 10 (gem rate), what a PSA 10 sells for versus the raw card, and how many PSA 10s exist.

Gem rate 52% · 3.8× raw · 8.1k PSA 10s

Price history

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PSA 10 line from 116 tracked eBay sales — a partial sample of eBay sold volume.

Grading edge

Grading edge

Buy raw, grade with PSA, sell as a slab. The upside if it grades PSA 10, after fee and turnaround.

+134%if it gems
≈ $282.50 net / card
Raw cost
$131.60
Grading fee
$80.00
Gem rate
52%
Slab market
$500.00

Best case — the return if this card grades PSA 10, net of the $80.00 fee and a ~8-week turnaround haircut. PSA 10s happen about 52% of the time (the gem rate above); on a miss you roughly recover the raw cost.

Investment Score

B+Solid hold
30-Day Move
-5%
Grading Edge
+53%
Time Window
30d

Pikachu V earns a 62/100 investment score and a B+ grade (solid hold). It's trading 2% above our fair value. That puts it among the most valuable cards in Lost Origin. Grading a raw copy to PSA-10 currently pencils about 53% ROI. It trades at a moderate pace.

Data snapshot — not a forecast
What drives the score· vs. modeled cards (ME · SV · SWSH · SM)
  • Demand
    6.7
  • Scarcity
    3.9
  • Stability
    6.5

This is a snapshot of demand fundamentals, not a forecast and not financial advice. "Gaining steam" just shows that the price has moved recently, not that it'll keep moving. The score measures durability, not how a card behaves in a crash. And keep an eye out for reprints, which can crash a chase card fast no matter how high the grade. Scores compare cards within the modern era (Mega Evolution, Scarlet & Violet, Sword & Shield) — not against vintage.

Supply & Demand

Active listings (eBay)
107
76 TCGplayer sellers · +36% vs 7d
Sold / wk
14
Demand pressure13% · steady
softhot
Supply trendbuilding · +13%
clearingbuilding
TCGplayer sales · sold per day

Supply shows both venues — eBay active listings + TCGplayer sellers (distinct units, not summed); the supply-trend gauge is eBay-driven for now, with the TCGplayer trend surfacing once its history is reliable, then blending. Sold/wk is TCGplayer; demand pressure = weekly TCGplayer sales ÷ eBay active listings (soft → hot) — a relative read, not a literal sell-through. Descriptive market context, not a forecast.

Across HyperPotion

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