Mega Evolution Index
A chain-linked barometer of the Mega Evolution chase cards with a fair-value overlay and an S&P 500 comparison. Descriptive: is this set rich or cheap versus what its cards are worth?
The Mega Evolution Raw Index · base 1,000
550.99▼ -44.9% S&P 500 +15.4% · index trails by 60.3 pts
Index level, not a dollar price · 56 chase cards · history since 2025-09-22
Market vs fair value
▲ +29.1%rich vs modeled fair
The basket is trading above fair value. Descriptive of where the market sits today, not a forecast.
Basket
- Basket market value
- $1,278
- Cards in the index
- 56
- Typical card
- $4.39
- Breadth · up in 7d
- 21%
Mega Evolution in dollars
Singles baskets and sealed product, priced, not indexed.
What's in the index
Showing 24 of 56 · sorted by price#CardMARKETVS FAIR
1Mega Lucario exMega Evolution · #188
$206.73
+7%
2Mega Gardevoir exMega Evolution · #178
$165.04
+78%
3Mega Lucario exMega Evolution · #179
$161.77
+21%
4Mega Gardevoir exMega Evolution · #187
$153.29
+24%
5Mega Venusaur exMega Evolution · #177
$111.80
+48%
6Mega Latias exMega Evolution · #181
$66.25
+7%
7Mega Kangaskhan exMega Evolution · #182
$50.50
+31%
8Lillie's DeterminationMega Evolution · #184
$47.40
+36%
9Mega Absol exMega Evolution · #180
$45.70
+28%
10Acerola's MischiefMega Evolution · #183
$25.59
+117%
11Lillie's DeterminationMega Evolution · #169
$19.01
+290%
12Wally's CompassionMega Evolution · #186
$18.52
+89%
13BulbasaurMega Evolution · #133
$16.80
-28%
14VulpixMega Evolution · #138
$16.43
+31%
15IvysaurMega Evolution · #134
$16.10
+11%
16Lt. Surge's BargainMega Evolution · #185
$12.78
-10%
17Mega Lucario exMega Evolution · #160
$10.66
+26%
18Mega Venusaur exMega Evolution · #155
$10.19
+36%
19MarshadowMega Evolution · #146
$9.07
-44%
20StuffulMega Evolution · #154
$7.02
+36%
21Mega Kangaskhan exMega Evolution · #164
$6.94
+145%
22Buddy-Buddy PoffinMega Evolution · #167
$5.51
+371%
23ShuckleMega Evolution · #136
$5.47
-30%
24Night StretcherMega Evolution · #173
$5.46
+538%
Other set indexes
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How this works
01 · What is in itThe chase cards of Mega Evolution that the model prices. A set needs at least five tracked chase cards before it gets an index at all. Below that the level is one or two cards wearing a set's name.
02 · How it is calculatedEqual-weighted and chain-linked from a base of 1,000: each day the level moves by the trimmed-mean daily return of its cards, dropping the top and bottom 2.5% and rejecting any single-day jump over 50%. Curated cuts pick their constituents by recent median price, so one thin sale cannot crown the wrong card.
03 · Market vs fairThe gauge is the basket’s average gap to modeled fair value: positive means the market trades rich, negative means cheap. It describes the present; it does not predict.