Lillie's Determination
Mega Evolution · #169 · UR
Lillie's Determination
Mega Evolution · #169 · UR
Overview
Fair-value verdict
Raw
$22.34
PREMIUM +227%Modeled fair value $6.84
Priced above fair value.
Stable No material movement in price, demand, or supply.
Sales −24% · Listings +4% · Price −5%
PSA 10
How Market is measured The Market value is a robust median of PSA 10 sold prices, a 7-day window when the card sells ≥5/week, widening to 30 to 60 days for thin volume, with an outlier filter. The chart plots the individual sales, so a recent spike can ride above this median. Reading raw vs. slab The two verdicts measure against different benchmarks, so they can point different directions without disagreeing. Raw is judged against the graded market, so a discount means the raw card is cheap relative to its PSA 10. Slab is judged against fundamentals, so a premium means the PSA 10 itself looks rich versus print scarcity, grading rates, and demand. Both can be true at once.$60.00
DISCOUNT −61%Modeled fair value $154.99
Trading well below fundamentals.
Grading How often this card grades PSA 10 (gem rate), what a PSA 10 sells for versus the raw card and how many PSA 10s exist.
Gem rate 49% · 2.7× raw · 3.8k PSA 10s
Raw and slab point different ways here, and both can be true: the raw card is expensive against its graded market, while the PSA 10 itself looks cheap against fundamentals.
Investment Score
Lillie's Determination earns a 44/100 investment score and a D grade (watch). It's trading 227% above our fair value. It's one of the pricier cards in Mega Evolution. It trades actively.
- Demand3.9
- Scarcity4.3
- Stability7.0
This is a snapshot of demand fundamentals, not a forecast and not financial advice. "Gaining steam" just shows that the price has moved recently, not that it'll keep moving. The score measures durability, not how a card behaves in a crash. And keep an eye out for reprints, which can crash a chase card fast no matter how high the grade. Scores compare cards within the modern era (Mega Evolution, Scarlet & Violet, Sword & Shield) — not against vintage.
Price chart
Price history
Sep 12, 2026
Indicator
Overlays and indicators are Premium.See what's included
PSA 10 is a rolling median over the last 7 sale-days, drawn from 71 tracked eBay sales — a partial sample of eBay sold volume, not the full market.
Indicator
Overlays and indicators are Premium.See what's included
PSA 10 is a rolling median over the last 7 sale-days, drawn from 71 tracked eBay sales — a partial sample of eBay sold volume, not the full market.
Most recent PSA 10 sale · $67.50 · Sep 10, 2026
Grading
Grade ladder
Confidence (High / Med / Low) is how much recorded sale history backs the price — Low means only a few sales, so treat it as directional. Prices are eBay-sold medians; ×raw is the grading premium; sales count the last 30 days.| Grade | Price | × Raw | Last sale | Sales (30d) | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw | $22.34 | — | $53 Sep 10 | 4 | High |
 10 | $60.00 | 2.7× | $68 Sep 10 | 26 | High |
 10 Shown as the standard-10 median. The CGC 10 bucket may include the occasional Pristine 10 / Black Label sale; a separate line for those is coming. | $54.07 | 2.4× | $54 Sep 4 | 2 | High |
 10 | $62.25 | 2.8× | $65 Aug 19 | 1 | High |
 10 | $40.05 | 1.8× | $43 Aug 8 | 0 | Med |
10$60.002.7×10 Shown as the standard-10 median. The CGC 10 bucket may include the occasional Pristine 10 / Black Label sale; a separate line for those is coming. $54.072.4×10$62.252.8×10$40.051.8×Prices are eBay-sold medians; last sale is the most recent single sale; sales count the last 30 days. Confidence reflects the full sale history behind each price — low-confidence rows rest on few sales, treat as directional.
Grade distribution
- PSA 103,75048.9%
- PSA 92,98438.9%
- PSA 87049.2%
- PSA 71391.8%
- 6 & below941.2%
PSA population from our own psacard.com read, Aug 25, 2026. Half grades count toward the grade below (a 9.5 is a 9).
Market
Supply & Demand
Supply is the TCGplayer listing count; demand pressure = weekly TCGplayer sales ÷ listings (soft → hot), a single-venue sell-through read. The supply-trend gauge reads eBay where we have it, with the TCGplayer listings trend surfacing as its history matures. Descriptive market context, not a forecast.
Across HyperPotion
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