Umbreon ex β€” Prismatic Evolutions #161

Umbreon ex

Prismatic Evolutions Β· #161 Β· SIR

Raw+1.6%/ 30dSlab+36.4%/ 30d Released 2025-01
Raw market
Market
Hot
$1,554
19.1 sales/wk 165 last 90d
Fair value
$1,364
Modeled daily.
vs Fair Value
β˜…Lean
+14%
OVERVALUED
PSA 10 slab?How Market is measured The Market value is a robust median of PSAΒ 10 sold prices β€” a 7-day window when the card sells β‰₯5/week, widening to 30–60 days for thin volume, with an outlier filter. The chart plots the individual sales, so a recent spike can ride above this median. Reading raw vs. slab The two β€œvs Fair Value” figures measure against different benchmarks, so they can point different directions without disagreeing. Raw is judged against the graded market β€” undervalued means the raw card is cheap relative to its PSAΒ 10. Slab is judged against fundamentals β€” overvalued means the PSAΒ 10 itself looks rich versus print scarcity, grading rates, and demand. Both can be true at once. 5,543 PSA 10 pop Β· 30% gem
Market
$6,276
Median PSA-10 sale Β· 414 sales
Fair value
$3,238
Modeled daily.
vs Fair Value
β˜…β˜…β˜…Strong
+94%
OVERVALUED

Model under-fits top chase grails (thin, hype-driven comps) β€” treat this PSA-10 verdict as low-confidence.

Price history Β· 30d

Raw market fair $1,364
PSA 10 slab PSA-10 sales Β· fair $3,238
Supply & Demand
Active listings Β· supply
70
Sold / wk Β· demand
21
β–² 91.1% vs 30d
Demand pressure30% Β· firm
softhot
Supply trendbuilding Β· +21%
clearingbuilding
TCGplayer sales Β· sold per day

Active listings + the supply-trend gauge are eBay; sold/wk is TCGplayer. Demand pressure = weekly TCGplayer sales Γ· eBay active listings (soft β†’ hot) β€” a relative read, not a literal sell-through, since the two venues differ (but track closely). Descriptive market context, not a forecast.

Grading opportunity

Buy raw, grade with PSA, sell as a slab β€” expected margin after fees, gem rate, and turnaround.

+78%
β‰ˆ $1,271 expected net / card
Raw cost
$1,554
Grading fee
$80.00
Gem rate
30%
Slab market
$6,276

Expected value per submission β€” the PSA-10 weighted by the 30% gem rate, ~raw recovered on the misses, after fee and a ~8-week turnaround haircut.

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