Mega Greninja ex
Chaos Rising · #116 · SIR
Mega Greninja ex
Chaos Rising · #116 · SIR
Overview
Fair-value verdict
Raw
$171.23
PREMIUM +92%Modeled fair value $89.08
Priced above fair value.
Demand Fading Demand is softening.
Sales −35% · Listings −4% · Price −42%
PSA 10
How Market is measured The Market value is a robust median of PSA 10 sold prices, a 7-day window when the card sells ≥5/week, widening to 30 to 60 days for thin volume, with an outlier filter. The chart plots the individual sales, so a recent spike can ride above this median. Reading raw vs. slab The two verdicts measure against different benchmarks, so they can point different directions without disagreeing. Raw is judged against the graded market, so a discount means the raw card is cheap relative to its PSA 10. Slab is judged against fundamentals, so a premium means the PSA 10 itself looks rich versus print scarcity, grading rates, and demand. Both can be true at once.$498.33
DISCOUNT −7%Modeled fair value $535.22
Priced about right, even a little cheap.
Grading How often this card grades PSA 10 (gem rate), what a PSA 10 sells for versus the raw card and how many PSA 10s exist.
Gem rate 74% · 2.9× raw · 2.2k PSA 10s
Raw and slab point different ways here, and both can be true: the raw card is expensive against its graded market, while the PSA 10 itself looks cheap against fundamentals.
Investment Score
Mega Greninja ex earns a 45/100 investment score and a C grade (fair hold). It's trading 92% above our fair value. That puts it among the most valuable cards in Chaos Rising. Grading a raw copy to PSA-10 currently pencils about 65% ROI. It trades actively.
- Demand5.7
- Scarcity1.5
- Stability2.3
This is a snapshot of demand fundamentals, not a forecast and not financial advice. "Gaining steam" just shows that the price has moved recently, not that it'll keep moving. The score measures durability, not how a card behaves in a crash. And keep an eye out for reprints, which can crash a chase card fast no matter how high the grade. Scores compare cards within the modern era (Mega Evolution, Scarlet & Violet, Sword & Shield) — not against vintage.
Price chart
Price history
Sep 12, 2026
Indicator
Overlays and indicators are Premium.See what's included
PSA 10 is a rolling median over the last 7 sale-days, drawn from 422 tracked eBay sales — a partial sample of eBay sold volume, not the full market.
Indicator
Overlays and indicators are Premium.See what's included
PSA 10 is a rolling median over the last 7 sale-days, drawn from 422 tracked eBay sales — a partial sample of eBay sold volume, not the full market.
Most recent PSA 10 sale · $480.39 · Sep 12, 2026
Grading
Grade ladder
Confidence (High / Med / Low) is how much recorded sale history backs the price — Low means only a few sales, so treat it as directional. Prices are eBay-sold medians; ×raw is the grading premium; sales count the last 30 days.| Grade | Price | × Raw | Last sale | Sales (30d) | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw | $171.23 | — | $169 Sep 10 | 13 | High |
 10 | $498.33 | 2.9× | $480 Sep 12 | 180 | High |
 10 Shown as the standard-10 median. The CGC 10 bucket may include the occasional Pristine 10 / Black Label sale; a separate line for those is coming. | $450.00 | 2.6× | $280 Sep 12 | 16 | High |
 10 Shown as the standard-10 median. The BGS 10 bucket may include the occasional Pristine 10 / Black Label sale; a separate line for those is coming. | $1,050.55 | 6.1× | $520 Sep 9 | 2 | Med |
 10 | $467.50 | 2.7× | $550 Sep 4 | 1 | High |
 10 | $269.83 | 1.6× | $258 Sep 11 | 8 | High |
10$498.332.9×10 Shown as the standard-10 median. The CGC 10 bucket may include the occasional Pristine 10 / Black Label sale; a separate line for those is coming. $450.002.6×10 Shown as the standard-10 median. The BGS 10 bucket may include the occasional Pristine 10 / Black Label sale; a separate line for those is coming. $1,050.556.1×10$467.502.7×10$269.831.6×Prices are eBay-sold medians; last sale is the most recent single sale; sales count the last 30 days. Confidence reflects the full sale history behind each price — low-confidence rows rest on few sales, treat as directional.
Grade distribution
- PSA 102,23074.4%
- PSA 966922.3%
- PSA 8581.9%
- PSA 7120.4%
- 6 & below291%
PSA population from our own psacard.com read, Aug 25, 2026. Half grades count toward the grade below (a 9.5 is a 9).
Grading edge
Grading edge
Buy raw, grade with PSA, sell as a slab. The upside if it grades PSA 10, after fee and turnaround.
Best case — the return if this card grades PSA 10, net of the $80.00 fee and a ~8-week turnaround haircut. PSA 10s happen about 74% of the time (the gem rate above); on a miss you roughly recover the raw cost.
Market
Supply & Demand
Supply is the TCGplayer listing count; demand pressure = weekly TCGplayer sales ÷ listings (soft → hot), a single-venue sell-through read. The supply-trend gauge reads eBay where we have it, with the TCGplayer listings trend surfacing as its history matures. Descriptive market context, not a forecast.
Across HyperPotion
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