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Pidgey — Obsidian Flames #207
Pull rate1 in 158 packs
Cost to pull~$1,928
Released2023-08

Pidgey

Obsidian Flames · #207 · IR
$11.02fair value $15.44
▼ 29% underPriced below fair value.
Demand BuildingDemand is rising, but the price hasn’t followed yet. A description of the data today, not a forecast.
30 daysPrice−12%Sales+39%Listings+2%
Repriced 2026-10-28 · Fair value is descriptive, not a forecast
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Price history

Raw price
Raw
$11.02▼ −$6.77 (−38.1%)past 90 days
$13.35$15.34$17.34$11.02
Aug 1Aug 23Sep 14Oct 5Oct 27
Market price
Latest raw market price · $11.02 · Oct 27, 2026
Raw is the daily TCGplayer market price. Fair value is the model's own daily reading, archived since June 2026.

Grading

Grade ladder

Confidence (High / Med / Low) is how much recorded sale history backs the price. Low means only a few sales, so treat it as directional. Prices are eBay-sold medians; ×raw is the grading premium; sales count the last 30 days.
What this card sells for at each grade, and how many sales back each price.
SkipGrading a raw copy to PSA 10 pencils about −38% expected return.Raw $11.02 → PSA 10 $175.00 · 15.9×
GradePrice× RawLast saleSales 30dConfidence
—Raw$11.02———High
PSA10$175.0015.9×$175.00 · Oct 278High
CGCPristine 10CGC 10 sales whose eBay listing says Pristine. The top CGC grade, so it can sell above a PSA 10. 2.0% of this card's graded CGC slabs are Pristine (population as of Oct 3), across everything CGC has graded, so it isn't the odds for your slab.$159.9914.5×$159.99 · Jan 220Low
CGC10Pristine 10 sales are left out and shown on their own line.$43.744.0×$44.00 · Oct 260High
SGC10$50.004.5×$50.00 · Jun 60Low
Prices are eBay-sold medians; last sale is the most recent single sale; sales count the last 30 days. Confidence reflects the full sale history behind each price. Low-confidence rows rest on few sales, so treat them as directional.

Grade distribution

How copies sent to PSA have come back.
Gem rate22.2%
PSA graded6,062
PSA 10
1,34622.2%
PSA 9
3,30654.5%
PSA 8
1,15419%
PSA 7
1883.1%
6 & below
681.1%
Other graders · as of Oct 2026
CGC904 graded · 29.8% top · 18 Pristine
BGS122 graded · 0% top
SGC103 graded · 12.6% top
PSA population from our own psacard.com read, Oct 4, 2026. Half grades count toward the grade below (a 9.5 is a 9). Other graders as of Oct 2026.

Market

Supply & demand

How many copies are for sale, and how fast they're selling.
Raw
TCGplayer listings374347 sellers · 0% vs 7d
Sold / week19▲ 38.6% vs 30d
Demand pressure5% · soft
softhot
Supply trendsteady · +2%
ClearingBuilding
TCGplayer sales · sold per day
Sep 16Oct 27
Supply is the TCGplayer listing count; demand pressure = weekly TCGplayer sales ÷ listings (soft → hot), a single-venue sell-through read. The supply-trend gauge reads eBay where we have it, with the TCGplayer listings trend surfacing as its history matures. Descriptive market context, not a forecast.

Investment Score

One grade for how durable this card's demand looks today.
Data snapshot, not a forecast
C
52/100Fair hold

Pidgey earns a 52/100 investment score and a C grade (fair hold). It's trading 29% below our fair value. It sits mid-pack in Obsidian Flames by price. Grading it to PSA-10 doesn't pencil at today's prices. It trades at a moderate pace.

30-day move▼ 20%
Grading edge-48%
Time window30d
What drives the scoreout of 10, vs. modeled cards
Demand
4.4
Scarcity
7.4
Stability
6.5
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