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Sun & Moon GX Challenge Box [Incineroar]
30-day move−3.9%
Pack ROI−93%
ReleasedFeb 2017
TCGplayereBay

Sun & Moon GX Challenge Box [Incineroar]

Sun & Moon · Sun & Moon · Sealed
$99.95fair value $93.09
▲ 7% overPriced above the cards inside.
Why it reads at a premiumSimilar sealed →
It has run 7.4 pts ahead of the chase cards it backs, after allowing for how sealed moved overall.
148 daysChase cards▲ +5.5%This product▲ +18.1%
Repriced 2026-10-28 · Fair value is descriptive, not a forecastConviction is how well-supported the gap is. A strong call is a wide, steady gap over the window; a lean one is smaller or noisier.

Price history

TCGplayer market price, daily, against the fair value the cards inside imply
$89.44$93.95$102.95Fair $93.09$99.95
Jul 30Aug 28Sep 27Oct 27
Market priceFair valueFair zone ±5%
Most recent: $99.95 · Oct 27, 2026
The fair value is today's, drawn flat: we publish one figure per product, not a fair-value history, so there is no earlier fair line to draw and no confidence band around it.

Rip math per pack

Pack EV board →
Pack price$22.38TCGplayer market
EV (net)$1.60chase value per pack, after fees
ROI▼ −93%net EV ÷ pack price − 1
Top-3 share35%of EV from three cards, led by Umbreon GX

EV is an average. Most packs miss and a few hits carry it, so a single rip swings widely.

Chase cards in Sun & Moon

The Sun & Moon singles this product's fair value tracks, top by market price.
All of the set →
Umbreon GXUmbreon GX#154$129.92≈ −1.0%Espeon GXEspeon GX#152$54.75▼ −21.0%Umbreon GXUmbreon GX#142$54.52▲ +68.0%LillieLillie#147$42.49▼ −40.0%Espeon GXEspeon GX#140$31.24▲ +14.0%Ultra BallUltra Ball#161$30.47▲ +132.0%

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