Watchog
Chaos Rising · #097 · IR$1.08fair value $2.52
▼ 57% underTrading well below fundamentals.
Market readSimilar cards →
Supply BuildingListings are piling up faster than they sell. A description of the data today, not a forecast.
30 daysPrice−38%Sales+1%Listings+20%
Repriced 2026-10-28 · Fair value is descriptive, not a forecast
Fair-Value Lab PremiumNudge the fundamentals and watch fair value respond. Explore scenarios for this card.
Start free trialPrice history
Raw priceRaw
$0.91▼ −$0.62 (−40.5%)past 90 days
$1.22$1.47$1.72$0.91
Aug 1Aug 23Sep 14Oct 5Oct 27
Market price
Latest raw market price · $0.91 · Oct 27, 2026Grading
Grade ladder
Confidence (High / Med / Low) is how much recorded sale history backs the price. Low means only a few sales, so treat it as directional. Prices are eBay-sold medians; ×raw is the grading premium; sales count the last 30 days.What this card sells for at each grade, and how many sales back each price.SkipGrading a raw copy to PSA 10 pencils about −47% expected return.Raw $1.08 → PSA 10 $59.79 · 55.4×
GradePrice× RawLast saleSales 30dConfidence
—Raw$1.08———High
PSA10$59.7955.4×$40.00 · Oct 264High
CGCPristine 10CGC 10 sales whose eBay listing says Pristine. The top CGC grade, so it can sell above a PSA 10. 28% of this card's graded CGC slabs are Pristine (population as of Oct 3), across everything CGC has graded, so it isn't the odds for your slab.$38.0035.2×$28.00 · Oct 2624High
CGC10Pristine 10 sales are left out and shown on their own line.$18.0016.7×$13.95 · Oct 2630High
ACE10$28.5926.5×—0Med
Grade distribution
How copies sent to PSA have come back.Gem rate72.2%
PSA graded378
PSA 10
27372.2%
PSA 9
9023.8%
PSA 8
112.9%
PSA 7
10.3%
6 & below
30.8%
Other graders · as of Oct 2026
PSA population from our own psacard.com read, Oct 4, 2026. Half grades count toward the grade below (a 9.5 is a 9). Other graders as of Oct 2026.CGC94 graded · 67% top · 37 Pristine
Market
Supply & demand
How many copies are for sale, and how fast they're selling.Raw
TCGplayer listings1,014982 sellers · -4% vs 7d
Sold / week111▲ 1.0% vs 30d
Demand pressure11% · soft
softhot
Supply trendbuilding · +20%
ClearingBuilding
TCGplayer sales · sold per day
Supply is the TCGplayer listing count; demand pressure = weekly TCGplayer sales ÷ listings (soft → hot), a single-venue sell-through read. The supply-trend gauge reads eBay where we have it, with the TCGplayer listings trend surfacing as its history matures. Descriptive market context, not a forecast.Sep 28Oct 27
Investment Score
One grade for how durable this card's demand looks today.Data snapshot, not a forecast
F
15/100Avoid
S+SABCDF
Watchog earns a 15/100 investment score and an F grade (avoid). It's trading 57% below our fair value. It's one of the lower-priced cards in Chaos Rising. Grading it to PSA-10 doesn't pencil at today's prices. It trades actively.
30-day moven/a
Grading edge-46%
Time window30d
What drives the scoreout of 10, vs. modeled cards
Demand
1.6
Scarcity
1.5
Stability
0.9
