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Acerola's Mischief — Mega Evolution #165
Pull rate1 in 267 packs
Cost to pull~$2,419
Released2025-09

Acerola's Mischief

Mega Evolution · #165 · UR
$1.77fair value $2.14
▼ 17% underPriced below fair value.
StableNo material movement in price, demand, or supply. A description of the data today, not a forecast.
30 daysPrice+3%Sales−19%Listings−2%
Repriced 2026-10-28 · Fair value is descriptive, not a forecast
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Price history

Raw price
Raw
$1.77▲ +$0.30 (+20.4%)past 90 days
$1.53$2.07$2.34$1.77
Aug 1Aug 23Sep 14Oct 5Oct 27
Market price
Latest raw market price · $1.77 · Oct 27, 2026
Raw is the daily TCGplayer market price. Fair value is the model's own daily reading, archived since June 2026.

Grading

Grade ladder

Confidence (High / Med / Low) is how much recorded sale history backs the price. Low means only a few sales, so treat it as directional. Prices are eBay-sold medians; ×raw is the grading premium; sales count the last 30 days.
What this card sells for at each grade, and how many sales back each price.
SkipGrading a raw copy to PSA 10 pencils about −66% expected return.Raw $1.77 → PSA 10 $37.20 · 21.0×
GradePrice× RawLast saleSales 30dConfidence
—Raw$1.77———High
PSA10$37.2021.0×$32.00 · Oct 212High
CGCPristine 10CGC 10 sales whose eBay listing says Pristine. The top CGC grade, so it can sell above a PSA 10. 26% of this card's graded CGC slabs are Pristine (population as of Oct 3), across everything CGC has graded, so it isn't the odds for your slab.$31.2017.6×$25.00 · Oct 114High
CGC10Pristine 10 sales are left out and shown on their own line.$14.408.1×$13.20 · Oct 261High
TAG10$24.9914.1×$40.00 · Apr 260Low
Prices are eBay-sold medians; last sale is the most recent single sale; sales count the last 30 days. Confidence reflects the full sale history behind each price. Low-confidence rows rest on few sales, so treat them as directional.

Grade distribution

How copies sent to PSA have come back.
Gem rate54.9%
PSA graded1,502
PSA 10
82454.9%
PSA 9
52034.6%
PSA 8
1268.4%
PSA 7
171.1%
6 & below
151%
Other graders · as of Oct 2026
CGC225 graded · 62.7% top · 80 Pristine
BGS29 graded · 0% top
SGC1 graded · 100% top
PSA population from our own psacard.com read, Oct 4, 2026. Half grades count toward the grade below (a 9.5 is a 9). Other graders as of Oct 2026.

Market

Supply & demand

How many copies are for sale, and how fast they're selling.
Raw
TCGplayer listings454437 sellers · +1% vs 7d
Sold / week20▼ 18.6% vs 30d
Demand pressure4% · soft
softhot
Supply trendsteady · -2%
ClearingBuilding
TCGplayer sales · sold per day
Sep 25Oct 27
Supply is the TCGplayer listing count; demand pressure = weekly TCGplayer sales ÷ listings (soft → hot), a single-venue sell-through read. The supply-trend gauge reads eBay where we have it, with the TCGplayer listings trend surfacing as its history matures. Descriptive market context, not a forecast.

Investment Score

One grade for how durable this card's demand looks today.
Data snapshot, not a forecast
F
27/100Avoid

Acerola's Mischief earns a 27/100 investment score and an F grade (avoid). It's trading 17% below our fair value. It's one of the lower-priced cards in Mega Evolution. Grading it to PSA-10 doesn't pencil at today's prices. It trades at a moderate pace.

30-day moven/a
Grading edge-74%
Time window30d
What drives the scoreout of 10, vs. modeled cards
Demand
1.7
Scarcity
3.5
Stability
6.6
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