Mega Charizard X ex — Phantasmal Flames #130

Mega Charizard X ex

Phantasmal Flames · #130 · MHR

Raw+2.2%/ 30dSlab−4.5%/ 30d Released 2025-11
Raw market
Market
Hot
$363.77
37.7 sales/wk 393 last 90d
Fair value
$314.60
Modeled daily.
vs Fair Value
★★Watch
+16%
OVERVALUED
PSA 10 slab?How Market is measured The Market value is a robust median of PSA 10 sold prices — a 7-day window when the card sells ≥5/week, widening to 30–60 days for thin volume, with an outlier filter. The chart plots the individual sales, so a recent spike can ride above this median. Reading raw vs. slab The two “vs Fair Value” figures measure against different benchmarks, so they can point different directions without disagreeing. Raw is judged against the graded market — undervalued means the raw card is cheap relative to its PSA 10. Slab is judged against fundamentals — overvalued means the PSA 10 itself looks rich versus print scarcity, grading rates, and demand. Both can be true at once. 1,454 PSA 10 pop · 11% gem
Market
$2,900
Median PSA-10 sale · 129 sales
Fair value
$3,799
Modeled daily.
vs Fair Value
★★Watch
−24%
UNDERVALUED

Price history · 30d

Raw market fair $314.60
PSA 10 slab PSA-10 sales · fair $3,799
Supply & Demand
Active listings · supply
203
Sold / wk · demand
33
▼ 10.3% vs 30d
Demand pressure16% · steady
softhot
Supply trendsteady · -2%
clearingbuilding
TCGplayer sales · sold per day

Active listings + the supply-trend gauge are eBay; sold/wk is TCGplayer. Demand pressure = weekly TCGplayer sales ÷ eBay active listings (soft → hot) — a relative read, not a literal sell-through, since the two venues differ (but track closely). Descriptive market context, not a forecast.

Grading opportunity

Buy raw, grade with PSA, sell as a slab — expected margin after fees, gem rate, and turnaround.

+40%
≈ $176.12 expected net / card
Raw cost
$363.77
Grading fee
$80.00
Gem rate
11%
Slab market
$2,900

Expected value per submission — the PSA-10 weighted by the 11% gem rate, ~raw recovered on the misses, after fee and a ~8-week turnaround haircut.

See full board

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