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Hydreigon ex β€” Surging Sparks #223

Hydreigon ex

Surging Sparks Β· #223 Β· UR

Pull rate1 in 312Cost to pull~$2,696Released2024-11

Fair-value verdict

$4.93

Fair value What our model says this card is worth from its fundamentals β€” print scarcity, character demand, gem rate, and grading comps. The verdict compares the market price to this. It's a fair-value read, not a prediction of where the price will go.$3.15PREMIUM+56%
+56%
below fairFairabove fair

Demand Fading Demand is softening.

Sales βˆ’59% Β· Listings +6% Β· Price +20%

PSA 10

How Market is measured The Market value is a robust median of PSAΒ 10 sold prices, a 7-day window when the card sells β‰₯5/week, widening to 30 to 60 days for thin volume, with an outlier filter. The chart plots the individual sales, so a recent spike can ride above this median. Reading raw vs. slab The two verdicts measure against different benchmarks, so they can point different directions without disagreeing. Raw is judged against the graded market, so a discount means the raw card is cheap relative to its PSAΒ 10. Slab is judged against fundamentals, so a premium means the PSAΒ 10 itself looks rich versus print scarcity, grading rates, and demand. Both can be true at once.

$54.27

Fair value What our model says this card is worth from its fundamentals β€” print scarcity, character demand, gem rate, and grading comps. The verdict compares the market price to this. It's a fair-value read, not a prediction of where the price will go.$99.54DISCOUNTβˆ’45%
-45%
below fairFairabove fair

Grading How often this card grades PSA 10 (gem rate), what a PSA 10 sells for versus the raw card, and how many PSA 10s exist.

Gem rate 45% Β· 11Γ— raw Β· 995 PSA 10s

Price historyΒ· 90d Β· % change

Overlays
Unlock overlays with Premium β†’
Raw + PSA 10

PSA 10 line from 28 tracked eBay sales β€” a partial sample of eBay sold volume.

Investment Score

DWatch
30-Day Move
n/a
Grading Edge
-68%
Time Window
30d

Hydreigon ex earns a 41/100 investment score and a D grade (watch). It's trading 56% above our fair value. It sits mid-pack in Surging Sparks by price. Grading it to PSA-10 doesn't pencil at today's prices. It trades actively.

Data snapshot β€” not a forecast
What drives the scoreΒ· vs. modern cards (ME Β· SV Β· SWSH)
  • Demand
    3.1
  • Scarcity
    4.7
  • Stability
    7.9

This is a snapshot of demand fundamentals, not a forecast and not financial advice. "Gaining steam" just shows that the price has moved recently, not that it'll keep moving. The score measures durability, not how a card behaves in a crash. And keep an eye out for reprints, which can crash a chase card fast no matter how high the grade. Scores compare cards within the modern era (Mega Evolution, Scarlet & Violet, Sword & Shield) β€” not against vintage.

Supply & Demand
Active listings (eBay)
742
210 TCGplayer sellers Β· trend pending
Sold / wk
39
β–Ό 59.3% vs 30d
Demand pressure5% Β· soft
softhot
Supply trendsteady Β· +6%
clearingbuilding
TCGplayer sales Β· sold per day

Supply shows both venues β€” eBay active listings + TCGplayer sellers (distinct units, not summed); the supply-trend gauge is eBay-driven for now, with the TCGplayer trend surfacing once its history is reliable, then blending. Sold/wk is TCGplayer; demand pressure = weekly TCGplayer sales Γ· eBay active listings (soft β†’ hot) β€” a relative read, not a literal sell-through. Descriptive market context, not a forecast.

Across HyperPotion

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