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Larvitar — Obsidian Flames #203
Pull rate1 in 158 packs
Cost to pull~$1,928
Released2023-08

Larvitar

Obsidian Flames · #203 · IR
$5.29fair value $7.02
▼ 25% underPriced below fair value.
Demand BuildingDemand is rising, but the price hasn’t followed yet. A description of the data today, not a forecast.
30 daysPrice−11%Sales+77%Listings+4%
Repriced 2026-10-28 · Fair value is descriptive, not a forecast
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Price history

Raw price
Raw
$5.29▼ −$1.50 (−22.1%)past 90 days
$5.05$5.65$6.25$6.85$5.29
Aug 1Aug 23Sep 14Oct 5Oct 27
Market price
Latest raw market price · $5.29 · Oct 27, 2026
Raw is the daily TCGplayer market price. Fair value is the model's own daily reading, archived since June 2026.

Grading

Grade ladder

Confidence (High / Med / Low) is how much recorded sale history backs the price. Low means only a few sales, so treat it as directional. Prices are eBay-sold medians; ×raw is the grading premium; sales count the last 30 days.
What this card sells for at each grade, and how many sales back each price.
SkipGrading a raw copy to PSA 10 pencils about −45% expected return.Raw $5.29 → PSA 10 $180.00 · 34.0×
GradePrice× RawLast saleSales 30dConfidence
—Raw$5.29———High
PSA10$180.0034.0×$223.50 · Sep 171High
CGCPristine 10CGC 10 sales whose eBay listing says Pristine. The top CGC grade, so it can sell above a PSA 10. 1.7% of this card's graded CGC slabs are Pristine (population as of Oct 3), across everything CGC has graded, so it isn't the odds for your slab.$171.5032.4×$203.50 · May 30Low
CGC10Pristine 10 sales are left out and shown on their own line.$60.0011.3×$45.00 · Oct 171Med
Prices are eBay-sold medians; last sale is the most recent single sale; sales count the last 30 days. Confidence reflects the full sale history behind each price. Low-confidence rows rest on few sales, so treat them as directional.

Grade distribution

How copies sent to PSA have come back.
Gem rate17.9%
PSA graded3,025
PSA 10
54117.9%
PSA 9
1,62753.8%
PSA 8
67322.2%
PSA 7
1434.7%
6 & below
411.4%
Other graders · as of Oct 2026
CGC733 graded · 26.2% top · 13 Pristine
BGS54 graded · 0% top
SGC63 graded · 6.3% top
PSA population from our own psacard.com read, Oct 4, 2026. Half grades count toward the grade below (a 9.5 is a 9). Other graders as of Oct 2026.

Market

Supply & demand

How many copies are for sale, and how fast they're selling.
Raw
TCGplayer listings376350 sellers · -1% vs 7d
Sold / week19▲ 76.9% vs 30d
Demand pressure5% · soft
softhot
Supply trendsteady · +4%
ClearingBuilding
TCGplayer sales · sold per day
Sep 16Oct 26
Supply is the TCGplayer listing count; demand pressure = weekly TCGplayer sales ÷ listings (soft → hot), a single-venue sell-through read. The supply-trend gauge reads eBay where we have it, with the TCGplayer listings trend surfacing as its history matures. Descriptive market context, not a forecast.

Investment Score

One grade for how durable this card's demand looks today.
Data snapshot, not a forecast
C
48/100Fair hold

Larvitar earns a 48/100 investment score and a C grade (fair hold). It's trading 25% below our fair value. It sits mid-pack in Obsidian Flames by price. Grading it to PSA-10 doesn't pencil at today's prices. It trades at a moderate pace.

30-day moven/a
Grading edge-57%
Time window30d
What drives the scoreout of 10, vs. modeled cards
Demand
3.5
Scarcity
7.9
Stability
6.9
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