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Chien-Pao ex — Paldea Evolved #261
Pull rate1 in 473 packs
Cost to pull~$7,601
Released2023-06

Chien-Pao ex

Paldea Evolved · #261 · SIR
$25.44fair value $21.64
▲ 18% overPriced above fair value.
StableNo material movement in price, demand, or supply. A description of the data today, not a forecast.
30 daysPrice0%Sales0%Listings+5%
Repriced 2026-10-28 · Fair value is descriptive, not a forecast
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Price history

Raw price
Raw
$25.49▼ −$5.47 (−17.7%)past 90 days
$27.30$28.96$30.62$25.49
Aug 1Aug 23Sep 14Oct 5Oct 27
Market price
Latest raw market price · $25.49 · Oct 27, 2026
Raw is the daily TCGplayer market price. Fair value is the model's own daily reading, archived since June 2026.

Grading

Grade ladder

Confidence (High / Med / Low) is how much recorded sale history backs the price. Low means only a few sales, so treat it as directional. Prices are eBay-sold medians; ×raw is the grading premium; sales count the last 30 days.
What this card sells for at each grade, and how many sales back each price.
SkipGrading a raw copy to PSA 10 pencils about −31% expected return.Raw $25.44 → PSA 10 $110.00 · 4.3×
GradePrice× RawLast saleSales 30dConfidence
—Raw$25.44———High
PSA10$110.004.3×$110.00 · Oct 2713High
CGCPristine 10CGC 10 sales whose eBay listing says Pristine. The top CGC grade, so it can sell above a PSA 10. 6.2% of this card's graded CGC slabs are Pristine (population as of Oct 3), across everything CGC has graded, so it isn't the odds for your slab.$112.504.4×$110.00 · Sep 180Low
CGC10Pristine 10 sales are left out and shown on their own line.$39.991.6×$75.00 · Oct 192High
TAG10$105.624.2×$125.00 · Sep 10Med
Prices are eBay-sold medians; last sale is the most recent single sale; sales count the last 30 days. Confidence reflects the full sale history behind each price. Low-confidence rows rest on few sales, so treat them as directional.

Grade distribution

How copies sent to PSA have come back.
Gem rate51.5%
PSA graded4,835
PSA 10
2,48851.5%
PSA 9
2,05842.6%
PSA 8
2354.9%
PSA 7
300.6%
6 & below
240.5%
Other graders · as of Oct 2026
CGC595 graded · 50.8% top · 39 Pristine
BGS96 graded · 0% top
SGC79 graded · 48.1% top
PSA population from our own psacard.com read, Oct 4, 2026. Half grades count toward the grade below (a 9.5 is a 9). Other graders as of Oct 2026.

Market

Supply & demand

How many copies are for sale, and how fast they're selling.
Raw
TCGplayer listings161154 sellers · -3% vs 7d
Sold / week9.8• 0.0% vs 30d
Demand pressure6% · soft
softhot
Supply trendsteady · +5%
ClearingBuilding
TCGplayer sales · sold per day
Aug 1Oct 22
Supply is the TCGplayer listing count; demand pressure = weekly TCGplayer sales ÷ listings (soft → hot), a single-venue sell-through read. The supply-trend gauge reads eBay where we have it, with the TCGplayer listings trend surfacing as its history matures. Descriptive market context, not a forecast.

Investment Score

One grade for how durable this card's demand looks today.
Data snapshot, not a forecast
D
40/100Watch

Chien-Pao ex earns a 40/100 investment score and a D grade (watch). It's trading 18% above our fair value. It's one of the pricier cards in Paldea Evolved. Grading it to PSA-10 doesn't pencil at today's prices. It trades thinly.

30-day move▼ 11%
Grading edge-35%
Time window30d
What drives the scoreout of 10, vs. modeled cards
Demand
3.1
Scarcity
4.0
Stability
8.0
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