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Tatsugiri — Twilight Masquerade #186

Tatsugiri

Twilight Masquerade · #186 · IR

Pull rate1 in 272Cost to pull~$2,328Released2024-05

Fair-value verdict

$22.01

Fair value What our model says this card is worth from its fundamentals — print scarcity, character demand, gem rate, and grading comps. The verdict compares the market price to this. It's a fair-value read, not a prediction of where the price will go.$34.18DISCOUNT−36%
-36%
below fairFairabove fair

Demand Fading Demand is softening.

Sales −58% · Listings +5% · Price 0%

PSA 10

How Market is measured The Market value is a robust median of PSA 10 sold prices, a 7-day window when the card sells ≥5/week, widening to 30 to 60 days for thin volume, with an outlier filter. The chart plots the individual sales, so a recent spike can ride above this median. Reading raw vs. slab The two verdicts measure against different benchmarks, so they can point different directions without disagreeing. Raw is judged against the graded market, so a discount means the raw card is cheap relative to its PSA 10. Slab is judged against fundamentals, so a premium means the PSA 10 itself looks rich versus print scarcity, grading rates, and demand. Both can be true at once.

$204.48

Fair value What our model says this card is worth from its fundamentals — print scarcity, character demand, gem rate, and grading comps. The verdict compares the market price to this. It's a fair-value read, not a prediction of where the price will go.$157.74PREMIUM+30%
+30%
below fairFairabove fair

Grading How often this card grades PSA 10 (gem rate), what a PSA 10 sells for versus the raw card, and how many PSA 10s exist.

Gem rate 42% · 9.3× raw · 3.8k PSA 10s

Price history· 90d · % change

Overlays
Unlock overlays with Premium →
Raw + PSA 10

PSA 10 line from 60 tracked eBay sales — a partial sample of eBay sold volume.

Investment Score

BSolid hold
30-Day Move
-9%
Grading Edge
-4%
Time Window
30d

Tatsugiri earns a 56/100 investment score and a B grade (solid hold). It's trading 36% below our fair value. It's one of the pricier cards in Twilight Masquerade. Grading it to PSA-10 doesn't pencil at today's prices. It trades at a moderate pace.

Data snapshot — not a forecast
What drives the score· vs. modern cards (ME · SV · SWSH)
  • Demand
    5.1
  • Scarcity
    5.1
  • Stability
    8.9

This is a snapshot of demand fundamentals, not a forecast and not financial advice. "Gaining steam" just shows that the price has moved recently, not that it'll keep moving. The score measures durability, not how a card behaves in a crash. And keep an eye out for reprints, which can crash a chase card fast no matter how high the grade. Scores compare cards within the modern era (Mega Evolution, Scarlet & Violet, Sword & Shield) — not against vintage.

Supply & Demand
Active listings (eBay)
221
164 TCGplayer sellers · trend pending
Sold / wk
22
▼ 57.7% vs 30d
Demand pressure10% · steady
softhot
Supply trendsteady · +5%
clearingbuilding
TCGplayer sales · sold per day

Supply shows both venues — eBay active listings + TCGplayer sellers (distinct units, not summed); the supply-trend gauge is eBay-driven for now, with the TCGplayer trend surfacing once its history is reliable, then blending. Sold/wk is TCGplayer; demand pressure = weekly TCGplayer sales ÷ eBay active listings (soft → hot) — a relative read, not a literal sell-through. Descriptive market context, not a forecast.

Across HyperPotion

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