Pikachu ex
Surging Sparks · #238 · SIR$254.32fair value $198.70
▲ 28% overPriced above fair value.
Market readSimilar cards →
Demand BuildingDemand is rising, but the price hasn’t followed yet. A description of the data today, not a forecast.
30 daysPrice−8%Sales+225%Listings−5%
Repriced 2026-10-28 · Fair value is descriptive, not a forecast
Fair-Value Lab PremiumNudge the fundamentals and watch fair value respond. Explore scenarios for this card.
Start free trialPrice history
Raw priceRaw
$256.63▼ −$67.08 (−20.7%)past 90 days
$280$300$319$256.63
Aug 1Aug 23Sep 14Oct 5Oct 27
Market price
Latest raw market price · $256.63 · Oct 27, 2026Grading
Grade ladder
Confidence (High / Med / Low) is how much recorded sale history backs the price. Low means only a few sales, so treat it as directional. Prices are eBay-sold medians; ×raw is the grading premium; sales count the last 30 days.What this card sells for at each grade, and how many sales back each price.BorderlineGrading a raw copy to PSA 10 pencils about +16% expected return.Raw $254.32 → PSA 10 $730.67 · 2.9×
GradePrice× RawLast saleSales 30dConfidence
—Raw$254.32———High
PSA10$730.672.9×$730.67 · Oct 2678High
CGCPristine 10CGC 10 sales whose eBay listing says Pristine. The top CGC grade, so it can sell above a PSA 10. 8.2% of this card's graded CGC slabs are Pristine (population as of Oct 3), across everything CGC has graded, so it isn't the odds for your slab.$1,000.003.9×$1,000.00 · Oct 122High
CGC10Pristine 10 sales are left out and shown on their own line.$402.501.6×$326.01 · Oct 248High
BGS10$2,100.008.3×$910.29 · Oct 42Med
Grade distribution
How copies sent to PSA have come back.Gem rate34.8%
PSA graded31,365
PSA 10
10,92634.8%
PSA 9
16,06051.2%
PSA 8
3,73111.9%
PSA 7
4131.3%
6 & below
2350.7%
Other graders · as of Oct 2026
PSA population from our own psacard.com read, Oct 4, 2026. Half grades count toward the grade below (a 9.5 is a 9). Other graders as of Oct 2026.CGC1,194 graded · 45.6% top · 107 Pristine
BGS1,059 graded · 0% top
SGC72 graded · 11.1% top
Grading edge
Buy raw, grade with PSA, sell as a slab. The upside if it grades PSA 10, after fee and turnaround.+113%if it gems≈ $379.25 net per card
Raw cost$254.32
Grading fee$80.00
Gem rate35%break-even 24%
Slab market$730.67
If you grade it, it comes back…
Best case: the return if this card grades PSA 10, net of the $80.00 fee and a ~8-week turnaround haircut, before selling fees. 35% of copies submitted to PSA came back a 10, but submitted copies are hand-picked. Break-even is the chance of a 10 your copy needs for grading to pay on average.GradeOddsSells forPSA 1035%$713.57PSA 951%$215.25PSA 812%$215.257 or lower2%$215.25
Averaged over those odds: ≈ $388.66 per slab, before selling fees.Market
Supply & demand
How many copies are for sale, and how fast they're selling.Raw
TCGplayer listings150131 sellers · -1% vs 7d
Sold / week8.3▲ 225.0% vs 30d
Demand pressure6% · soft
softhot
Supply trendsteady · -5%
ClearingBuilding
TCGplayer sales · sold per day
Supply is the TCGplayer listing count; demand pressure = weekly TCGplayer sales ÷ listings (soft → hot), a single-venue sell-through read. The supply-trend gauge reads eBay where we have it, with the TCGplayer listings trend surfacing as its history matures. Descriptive market context, not a forecast.Jul 31Oct 24
Investment Score
One grade for how durable this card's demand looks today.Data snapshot, not a forecast
A+
75/100Core hold
S+SABCDF
Pikachu ex earns a 75/100 investment score and an A+ grade (core hold). It's trading 28% above our fair value. That puts it among the most valuable cards in Surging Sparks. Grading a raw copy to PSA-10 currently pencils about 26% ROI. It trades at a moderate pace.
30-day move▼ 10%
Grading edge+26%
Time window30d
What drives the scoreout of 10, vs. modeled cards
Demand
7.6
Scarcity
5.9
Stability
8.5
